NFL 2021 draft odds. From wagering on which team drafts Chase Young to how many players the SEC will have drafted in the first round, your NFL Draft bets will be bets based on “+” and “-“ numbers. If you bet on a prop that came in at, say, -250, it means you sided with a favorite and needed to lay $250 for a return of $100. When it comes to odds on the 2021 NFL Draft, sportsbooks are united in projecting Clemson Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence to be the first player taken off the board. Lawrence is the extremely heavy odds-on -5000 favorite at Bovada to be selected first overall in the NFL draft, followed by Justin Fields (+1200) and Penei Sewell (+1800) as the. 2021 NBA Draft Lottery Odds These tables show the percent chance to end up with each pick after the lottery. The last column shows the expected value, or average pick position, for each seed.

Sportsbooks have put up a massive amount of NFL draft odds on the betting board and we bring you some of the more intriguing prop bets being offered with the 2020 NFL draft set to begin at 8:00 p. View NFL odds and bet online legally, securely, and easily on NFL games all season. NFL Draft 2021 FRI 30th APR 12:00AM. First Quarterback Drafted.

Earlier in the week, we broke down the Detroit Lions’ draft position after their Week 16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They currently sit with the seventh overall pick, atop all 5-10 teams due to their easy schedule. With the right amount of luck, that could turn into as high as the third overall pick by the end of the regular season.

Of course, if the Lions decide to win, and Lady Luck isn’t on their side, they could also drop out of the top 10 completely, and as low as 13.

So we know that possibilities, but how likely is each one? Which draft pick position is most likely for Detroit come April’s draft?

Luckily, there are a bunch of math majors across the world that are much smarter than me and have developed prediction models for just this sort of thing. Let’s take a look at a few of them.

Playoffstatus.com

As far as I can tell, this is the only website that gives a percentage probability for all possible draft order spots for every NFL team. Their methodology is a bit vague, saying simply “all future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.” However, this is a good place to start.

Here’s which draft picks PlayoffStatus.com believes are most likely to land with Detroit:

3rd: less than 1%

4th: 3%

5th: 13%

6th: 21%

7th: 10%

8th: 1%

9th: 3%

10th: 14%

11th: 23%

12th: 12%

13th: less than 1%

What’s interesting here is that their model seems to suggest the Lions have a very good chance to win on Sunday. Their model gives Detroit a 49% chance of picking either 10th, 11th, or 12th, which can really only happen if the Lions win. On the other hand, they give Detroit just a 47% chance of picking fourth through seventh, which can only happen with a win.

Either way, it appears the Lions’ most likely landing spot is sixth with a win and 11th with a loss, per their model.

Football Outsiders

Football Outsiders doesn’t give a pick-by-pick breakdown, but simply notes the probability—based on their DVOA metric plus a simulation of 30,000 outcomes—a team has a top-five pick.

They’re giving the Lions a 15.9 percent chance of a top-five pick, which is almost exactly along the same lines as PlayoffStatus.com (16%).

The Athletic

Ethan Douglas and Dane Brugler have been running a weekly draft order predictions article for the past couple of weeks. Their projections are based on 1,000,000 simulations. Here’s what they take into account in those projections:

Each team’s EPR, home field advantage, and rest advantages. Each team’s EPR is a prediction of how many points we’d expect that team to beat an average team by on a neutral field. You can read more about EPR and the model here.

Per this model’s projections, the most common spot the Lions finish at is seventh, with their overall average at 7.5.

As for probabilities, they offer just the chances of landing in the top three, top five or top 10. Here’s that breakdown:

Top 3 pick: 0.4%

Top 5 pick: 20.2%

Top 10 pick: 80.0%

This model is obviously a little more optimistic about the Lions’ draft position, giving them a four percent better chance of landing a top-five pick than the previous two models.

ESPN

Nfl Draft Odds Vegas

I’ve saved the best (see: most optimistic) for last. ESPN’s projection model runs 10,000 simulations based on their FPI metric.

Per their model, the Lions’ average draft position after their simulations is 7.0, a good 0.5 higher than The Athletic’s projections. Their probabilities are also much more optimistic about Detroit capturing a top five or top-10 pick.

Top 5 pick: 28.3%

Top 10 pick: 84.3%

Putting it all together, it all really depends on what you think happens on Sunday. If the Lions lose to the Vikings, the seventh overall pick is the most likely scenario. Given that Detroit is pretty beat up, playing horribly right now, and may not have the services of Matthew Stafford, it feels like a pretty good bet.

However, the Vikings have only pride to play for, and it’s unclear what their plans are with their starters. If Detroit pulls off the upset (Vikings currently favored by 6.5), they’ll almost certainly fall out of the top 10 and likely a little further than that.

2021 NFL Draft - No. 1 Overall Pick Odds

Odds Provided by FanDuel - Subject to Change

2021 NFL Draft - No. 2 Overall Pick Odds

Odds Provided by FanDuel - Subject to Change

How to read the 2021 NFL Draft Odds Market

The 2020 NFL and College Football seasons have concluded and the 2021 campaigns will begin next August and September.

The next main event for the two sports in the 2021 NFL Draft, which will take place on Thursday Apr. 29 from Cleveland, Ohio and run through Saturday May 1.

The NFL Draft has seven rounds and all 32 clubs will participate in the event, drafting players from College Football schools.

What's great about this event is that bettors can start placing wagers on the 2021 NFL Draft with America's top online sportsbooks, including FanDuel.

Odds to be the 1st Overall Pick in the 2021 NFL Draft

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a heavy favorite (-6000) to be the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and that selection is owned by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Bettors placing a $100 wager on Lawrence to be selected on Jacksonville would win $1.67.

QB Justin Fields of Ohio State and Oregon offensive linemen Penei Sewell are listed behind him at 10/1 and 11/1 odds respectively.

Who Will be the No. 2 Pick in the NFL Draft?

This NFL Draft betting market is much more competitive and the New York Jets will be on the clock with the second overall selection.

Zach Wilson, quarterback of BYU, has been made the top betting choice to be picked at 5/9 odds second while the aforementioned Fields (+270) is also in the mix too.

Vegas Nfl Draft Odds

2021 NFL Draft - No. 2 Pick Odds Comparison

Bettors can compare their future prices below at four of the most popular legal online sportsbooks in the United States.

Nfl Draft Odds Bovada

NFL Draft Order

NFL Draft Order Process

• The NFL Draft order is determined by the standings at the end of the regular season
• The team with the worst record will select first in the NFL Draft and each team will follow up to the 20th selection
• The remaining 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs will be placed in order of their elimination during the postseason

Team (2020 Regular Season Record)

1. Jacksonville (1-15)
2. N.Y. Jets (2-14)
3. Miami (from Houston (4-12)
4. Atlanta (4-12)
5. Cincinnati (4-11-1)
6. Philadelphia (4-11-1)
7. Detroit (5-11)
8. Carolina (5-11)
9. Denver (5-11)
10. Dallas (6-10)
11. N.Y. Giants (6-10)
12. San Francisco (6-10)
13. L.A. Chargers (7-9)
14. Minnesota (7-9)
15. New England (7-9)
16. Arizona (8-8)
17. Las Vegas (8-8)
18. Miami (10-6)
19. Washington (7-9)
20. Chicago (8-8)
21. Indianapolis (11-5)
22. Tennessee (11-5)
23. N.Y. Jets (from Seattle (12-4)
24. Pittsburgh (12-4)
25. Jacksonville (from LA Rams (10-6)
26. Cleveland (11-5)
27. Baltimore (11-5)
28. New Orleans (12-4)
29. Green Bay (13-3)
30. Buffalo (13-3)
31. Kansas City (14-2)
32. Tampa Bay (11-5)

NFL Draft History No. 1 Picks

Looking at the recent NFL Draft History, quarterbacks have been selected first in five of the last six drafts and nine of the last 12 going back to 2009.

NFL No. 1 Draft History (2009-2020)

• 2020 - Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
• 2019 - Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
• 2018 - Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
• 2017 - Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
• 2016 - Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams
• 2015 - Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• 2014 - Jadeveon Clowney, DE, Houston Texans
• 2013 - Eric Fisher, T, Kansas City Chiefs
• 2012 - Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
• 2011 - Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
• 2010 - Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams
• 2009 - Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

A quarterback has been taken with the No. 1 overall pick in five of the last six drafts. Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns was the lone exception within that time span.

The No. 1 overall pick has been a quarterback or a lineman in each of the last 24 drafts, making it highly unlikely that a running back, receiver, linebacker, or defensive back will be the first player whose name we hear on April 29 in Cleveland, Ohio.